the COGENT PROVOCATEUR
free agent, loose cannon, pointy stick ... taking an imposing analytic toolkit out of the box, over the wall and into the street ... with callous disregard for accepted wisdom and standard English
reading tea leaves from original angles, we've led with uncannily prescient takes on the federal surplus, the dotcom crash, the "Energy Crisis", the Afghan campaign, the federal deficit.
More where those came from ... stay tuned.
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All "major" articles of older material have now been imported, some with updates worth perusing. We'll keep it all on the main page for a while, will add a few loose pieces of history, will trim the main page and index the archives for convenience later.
the COGENT PROVOCATEUR:
free agent, loose cannon, pointy stick ...
... gateway to the next Progressive Era?
Some say it's nothing but a train wreck ... roll in the big cranes, clear the track, see what the crew was smoking. If I thought so, I'd not be writing this ... and if they thought so, they'd not be drumming so hard.
OTHER GOOD STUFF:
Many thanks to Tony Adragna and Will Vehrs, still shouting 'cross the Potomac at QuasiPundit. Early Camp Enron material can be found in QP's Dispatches department.
Tuesday, March 12, 2002
--- Off the Cliff, into the Black Hole ---Vincent Boland in the 2002-03-11 Financial Times alerts us that Avinash Persaud (global research honcho at State Street Bank, and author of a recent classic paper on herd behavior in financial markets) has another paper in the works. "Liquidity Black Holes" will disturb our slumbers with a warning that current trends in number-munching -- underestimating the balance of correlated vs uncorrelated risk -- are dragging us into the energy wells of markets that appear deceptively liquid when you're buying in, but turn stubbornly illiquid when you (and probably the herd) are selling out ... setting the stage for major instability.
For Persaud's 2000 "Off the Cliff" piece, see this PDF. Hear more on the groupthink of market stampedes and social proof from this Motley Fool, and keep an eye out for "Black Holes".
(In closing, Boland suggests "Investors and regulators have the same interest -- cleverer regulation, rather than simply more of it.")